NPDev FinPulse · A little more market clarity.

Public prediction markets

Polymarket odds.
Scored honestly.

Markets discovered from Polymarket's public API, with its own implied probability and, where the public record supports one, an independent estimate from the NVIDIA Kumo Relational model.

Discovery coverage — open: 24923 markets over 8 pages · resolved: 447 markets over 8 pages · 997 cached model estimates. Every number is cached locally; reading this page never calls a provider.

25371 matching markets · newest discovery first within each scope

Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.7%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.7 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 15?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"36.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 36.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-09 House election by 15%-18%?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"18.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 18.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 30%-35%?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"16.9%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 16.9 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NH-01 House election by 15%-20%?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"20.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 20.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on November 9?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.1%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.1 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be 73°F or below on October 31?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.1%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.1 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Corey Day win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.7%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.7 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 26?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"27.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 27.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Republicans win the Michigan and New Hampshire Senate seats, and Democrats win Minnesota?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"2.2%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 2.2 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on November 4?

Uncategorised · Open · 981 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.2%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.2 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

How these numbers are produced

Polymarket publishes a market's own last-traded price, which is its implied probability. That is market-derived evidence: it is the crowd's aggregate view, and it is shown separately from anything else.

The model estimate comes from a supervised relational model asked to predict how the market eventually resolves. It learns only from markets that have already settled, described only by what was observable a fixed horizon before their resolution — pre-resolution price paths, public trade history, and order-book snapshots recorded before the market ended. A market's outcome, final price and final volume are never inputs.

Order books are only published as a live snapshot, so no historical book exists to learn from; the section therefore records durable timestamped snapshots from now on, and reports book features as missing — never as zero — wherever none was recorded before an anchor.

Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk of total loss.