NPDev FinPulse · A little more market clarity.

Public prediction markets

Polymarket odds.
Scored honestly.

Markets discovered from Polymarket's public API, with its own implied probability and, where the public record supports one, an independent estimate from the NVIDIA Kumo Relational model.

Discovery coverage — open: 24061 markets over 8 pages · resolved: 447 markets over 8 pages · 997 cached model estimates. Every number is cached locally; reading this page never calls a provider.

24509 matching markets · newest discovery first within each scope

Will the Opportunity Party win 10-12 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"13.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 13.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on September 27?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"13.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 13.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in November 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"29.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 29.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on September 26?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"99.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 99.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 24?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"43.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 43.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $4.05B?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"69.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 69.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-10-31?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"32.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 32.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Exact Score: New York Red Bulls 1 - 1 Inter Miami CF?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"12.6%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 12.6 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 0%-10%?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"3.4%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 3.4 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will BYU have an undefeated CFB regular season?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-29?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"72.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 72.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 27?

Uncategorised · Open · 983 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"5.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 5.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

How these numbers are produced

Polymarket publishes a market's own last-traded price, which is its implied probability. That is market-derived evidence: it is the crowd's aggregate view, and it is shown separately from anything else.

The model estimate comes from a supervised relational model asked to predict how the market eventually resolves. It learns only from markets that have already settled, described only by what was observable a fixed horizon before their resolution — pre-resolution price paths, public trade history, and order-book snapshots recorded before the market ended. A market's outcome, final price and final volume are never inputs.

Order books are only published as a live snapshot, so no historical book exists to learn from; the section therefore records durable timestamped snapshots from now on, and reports book features as missing — never as zero — wherever none was recorded before an anchor.

Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk of total loss.