NPDev FinPulse · A little more market clarity.

Public prediction markets

Polymarket odds.
Scored honestly.

Markets discovered from Polymarket's public API, with its own implied probability and, where the public record supports one, an independent estimate from the NVIDIA Kumo Relational model.

Discovery coverage — open: 17688 markets over 8 pages · resolved: 412 markets over 8 pages · 997 cached model estimates. Every number is cached locally; reading this page never calls a provider.

17688 matching markets · newest discovery first within each scope

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 99722 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"1.8%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 1.8 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate23.9%
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: 23.9 percent

Cached model estimate of the eventual "Yes" outcome from 120 resolved markets. Generated Sep 23, 2026 · 16:30 UTC. Refresh status: ready. Not independent evidence.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Uncategorised · Open · 99720 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"9.6%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 9.6 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Uncategorised · Open · 99718 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"26.7%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 26.7 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate22.9%
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: 22.9 percent

Cached model estimate of the eventual "Yes" outcome from 120 resolved markets. Generated Sep 23, 2026 · 18:37 UTC. Refresh status: ready. Not independent evidence.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?

Uncategorised · Open · 99710 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"95.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 95.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?

Uncategorised · Open · 99709 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"84.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 84.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?

Uncategorised · Open · 99709 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"90.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 90.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?

Uncategorised · Open · 99708 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"39.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 39.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 99706 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"26.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 26.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 99704 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"3.7%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 3.7 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 99700 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"23.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 23.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?

Uncategorised · Open · 99698 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"0.8%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 0.8 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 99693 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"31.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 31.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

How these numbers are produced

Polymarket publishes a market's own last-traded price, which is its implied probability. That is market-derived evidence: it is the crowd's aggregate view, and it is shown separately from anything else.

The model estimate comes from a supervised relational model asked to predict how the market eventually resolves. It learns only from markets that have already settled, described only by what was observable a fixed horizon before their resolution — pre-resolution price paths, public trade history, and order-book snapshots recorded before the market ended. A market's outcome, final price and final volume are never inputs.

Order books are only published as a live snapshot, so no historical book exists to learn from; the section therefore records durable timestamped snapshots from now on, and reports book features as missing — never as zero — wherever none was recorded before an anchor.

Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk of total loss.