NPDev FinPulse · A little more market clarity.

Public prediction markets

Polymarket odds.
Scored honestly.

Markets discovered from Polymarket's public API, with its own implied probability and, where the public record supports one, an independent estimate from the NVIDIA Kumo Relational model.

Discovery coverage — open: 19654 markets over 8 pages · resolved: 429 markets over 8 pages · 997 cached model estimates. Every number is cached locally; reading this page never calls a provider.

20084 matching markets · newest discovery first within each scope

Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"6.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 6.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"1.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 1.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"36.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 36.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 16?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"77.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 77.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will China PR win on 2026-10-02?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"1.9%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 1.9 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by November 30?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"43.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 43.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-10-10?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"18.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 18.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-10?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"85.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 85.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"6.9%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 6.9 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No cached estimate yet. Estimates are produced in the background and are never generated by a page view.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 27?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"84.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 84.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"50.5%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 50.5 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 24?

Uncategorised · Open · 9993 USDC tracked volume

Polymarket-implied "Yes"53.0%
Polymarket-implied "Yes": 53.0 percent

Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome, shown as a probability.

NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimateUnavailable
NVIDIA Kumo Relational estimate: unavailable

No estimate is published for this market: rejected.

Two separate numbers: the market's own last-traded price is market-derived evidence; the model estimate is a different, independent method. Neither is a recommendation.

How these numbers are produced

Polymarket publishes a market's own last-traded price, which is its implied probability. That is market-derived evidence: it is the crowd's aggregate view, and it is shown separately from anything else.

The model estimate comes from a supervised relational model asked to predict how the market eventually resolves. It learns only from markets that have already settled, described only by what was observable a fixed horizon before their resolution — pre-resolution price paths, public trade history, and order-book snapshots recorded before the market ended. A market's outcome, final price and final volume are never inputs.

Order books are only published as a live snapshot, so no historical book exists to learn from; the section therefore records durable timestamped snapshots from now on, and reports book features as missing — never as zero — wherever none was recorded before an anchor.

Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk of total loss.