Polymarket market
Will Biden say "Old" during drop out speech?
Uncategorised · Resolved No · scheduled end Jul 24, 2024 · 12:00 UTC
Two separate probabilities
Market-derived: Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome.
No estimate is published for this market; see the model section below for why.
Settled: Yes resolved false.
NVIDIA Kumo Relational
Model estimate
A supervised relational model asked how this market eventually resolves. Its context is settled markets described only by what was observable a fixed horizon before their resolution.
No cached estimate exists for this market yet. Estimates are produced by a background worker under a daily request budget; opening this page never starts one.
No explanation, accuracy or calibration figure is shown, because none is measured or supplied by the endpoint. The model's probabilities are its own output; they are not this site's opinion and not investment advice.
Price path
No price history is cached for this market yet.
Market microstructure
Public order book and public trade history, as published. These are the inputs the model is allowed to see.
No order-book snapshot is recorded for this market, so every book feature is missing rather than zero. Snapshots are recorded from now on and become usable context once the market settles.
| Window | Trades | Buy size | Sell size | VWAP | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 1 h | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
| Last 6 h | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
| Last 1 d | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
Only trades the public Data API reports against this market's first-outcome token are counted, using the side it reports; second-outcome trades are excluded rather than converted. Window ends at Nov 01, 2026 · 14:26 UTC.
Every microstructure measure here is an observation, never a default: a book side the API did not publish, a window in which no trade was reported, or a snapshot that was never recorded is reported as missing, not zero. A zero on this page always means the API genuinely reported zero.
Comments and bookmarks
Comments are plain text from NPDev accounts. Bookmarks stay private to the account that saved them.
No comments yet. Be the first to say something.
Sign in to join the conversation.