Polymarket market
Will Wales win on 2026-10-01?
Uncategorised · Open · scheduled end Oct 01, 2026 · 18:45 UTC
Two separate probabilities
Market-derived: Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome.
No estimate is published for this market; see the model section below for why.
NVIDIA Kumo Relational
Model estimate
A supervised relational model asked how this market eventually resolves. Its context is settled markets described only by what was observable a fixed horizon before their resolution.
rejected No estimate is published for this market.
Provenance
Features supplied
Limitations
- The market price is Polymarket's own last-traded probability: market-derived evidence, not independent evidence.
- Order books are only published as a live snapshot, so no historical book exists to learn from; book features are therefore absent from most context rows by construction, never zero-filled.
- Trade flow counts only trades reported on the market's first-outcome token. Second-outcome trades are excluded rather than converted.
- No accuracy, calibration or backtest figure is published: none has been measured on a held-out sample.
- A prediction is the model's estimate of how the market eventually resolves, not a forecast of the next price move.
Last attempt outcome: kumo problem 422 UNSUPPORTED_SHAPE.
No explanation, accuracy or calibration figure is shown, because none is measured or supplied by the endpoint. The model's probabilities are its own output; they are not this site's opinion and not investment advice.
Price path
171 observations · probability · source Polymarket public CLOB history (requested by token id) · Sep 24, 2026 · 21:00 UTC to Oct 01, 2026 · 22:00 UTC. The dashed line marks the prediction anchor at Nov 01, 2026 · 15:21 UTC.
Market microstructure
Public order book and public trade history, as published. These are the inputs the model is allowed to see.
| Measure | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|
| Best price | 0.9990 | — |
| Depth within 0.02 | 1109968.50 | 0.00 |
| Depth within 0.05 | 1111389.50 | 0.00 |
| Imbalance within 0.02 | 1.0000 | |
| Imbalance within 0.05 | 1.0000 | |
Spread — · depth bands are absolute price bands around the best quote on each side; a fetched book with an empty side is a real zero, while an absent snapshot is reported as missing. Snapshot age 2658428 s.
| Window | Trades | Buy size | Sell size | VWAP | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 1 h | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
| Last 6 h | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
| Last 1 d | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
Only trades the public Data API reports against this market's first-outcome token are counted, using the side it reports; second-outcome trades are excluded rather than converted. Window ends at Nov 01, 2026 · 15:21 UTC.
Every microstructure measure here is an observation, never a default: a book side the API did not publish, a window in which no trade was reported, or a snapshot that was never recorded is reported as missing, not zero. A zero on this page always means the API genuinely reported zero.
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