Polymarket market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 16?
Uncategorised · Resolved No · scheduled end May 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC
Two separate probabilities
Market-derived: Polymarket's own last-traded price for the first outcome.
No estimate is published for this market; see the model section below for why.
Settled: Yes resolved false.
NVIDIA Kumo Relational
Model estimate
A supervised relational model asked how this market eventually resolves. Its context is settled markets described only by what was observable a fixed horizon before their resolution.
No cached estimate exists for this market yet. Estimates are produced by a background worker under a daily request budget; opening this page never starts one.
No explanation, accuracy or calibration figure is shown, because none is measured or supplied by the endpoint. The model's probabilities are its own output; they are not this site's opinion and not investment advice.
Price path
31 observations · probability · source Polymarket public CLOB history (requested by token id) · May 14, 2026 · 05:00 UTC to May 15, 2026 · 11:00 UTC. The dashed line marks the prediction anchor at May 15, 2026 · 12:00 UTC.
Market microstructure
Public order book and public trade history, as published. These are the inputs the model is allowed to see.
No order-book snapshot is recorded for this market, so every book feature is missing rather than zero. Snapshots are recorded from now on and become usable context once the market settles.
| Window | Trades | Buy size | Sell size | VWAP | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 1 h | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
| Last 6 h | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
| Last 1 d | No trade was reported in this window — missing, not zero. | ||||
Only trades the public Data API reports against this market's first-outcome token are counted, using the side it reports; second-outcome trades are excluded rather than converted. Window ends at Nov 01, 2026 · 15:21 UTC.
Every microstructure measure here is an observation, never a default: a book side the API did not publish, a window in which no trade was reported, or a snapshot that was never recorded is reported as missing, not zero. A zero on this page always means the API genuinely reported zero.
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